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Old 07-30-2007, 04:10 AM   #1
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subj/tropical cyclone warning//

rmks/

1. Typhoon 05w (Usagi) warning nr 007

01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
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Old 07-30-2007, 04:48 AM   #2
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subj/tropical cyclone warning//

rmks/


1. Typhoon 05w (Usagi) warning nr 007

01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac


Max sustained winds based on one-minute average

---

warning position:


300000z --- near 19.6n 142.5e

movement past six hours - 310 degrees at 11 kts

position accurate to within 040 nm

position based on center located by satellite

present wind distribution:

Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant

055 nm southeast quadrant

035 nm southwest quadrant

050 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant

120 nm southeast quadrant

070 nm southwest quadrant

080 nm northwest quadrant

repeat posit: 19.6n 142.5e

---

forecasts:

12 hrs, valid at:

301200z --- 20.8n 140.8e

Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant

020 nm southeast quadrant

020 nm southwest quadrant

020 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant

060 nm southeast quadrant

040 nm southwest quadrant

055 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant

120 nm southeast quadrant

070 nm southwest quadrant

080 nm northwest quadrant

vector to 24 hr posit: 310 deg/ 12 kts

---

24 hrs, valid at:

310000z --- 22.3n 138.8e

Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant

025 nm southeast quadrant

025 nm southwest quadrant

025 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant

060 nm southeast quadrant

045 nm southwest quadrant

055 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant

130 nm southeast quadrant

080 nm southwest quadrant

090 nm northwest quadrant

vector to 36 hr posit: 320 deg/ 12 kts

---

36 hrs, valid at:

311200z --- 24.1n 137.1e

Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant

030 nm southeast quadrant

030 nm southwest quadrant

030 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant

060 nm southeast quadrant

045 nm southwest quadrant

055 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant

130 nm southeast quadrant

080 nm southwest quadrant

090 nm northwest quadrant

vector to 48 hr posit: 330 deg/ 12 kts

---

extended outlook:

48 hrs, valid at:

010000z --- 26.2n 135.8e

Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant

030 nm southeast quadrant

030 nm southwest quadrant

030 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant

065 nm southeast quadrant

050 nm southwest quadrant

060 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant

140 nm southeast quadrant

090 nm southwest quadrant

100 nm northwest quadrant

vector to 72 hr posit: 335 deg/ 12 kts

---

72 hrs, valid at:

020000z --- 30.6n 133.6e

Max sustained winds - 125 kt, gusts 150 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant

040 nm southeast quadrant

035 nm southwest quadrant

040 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant

070 nm southeast quadrant

055 nm southwest quadrant

065 nm northwest quadrant

radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant

140 nm southeast quadrant

090 nm southwest quadrant

100 nm northwest quadrant

vector to 96 hr posit: 005 deg/ 10 kts

---

long range outlook:

note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm

on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity

near 20 kt each day.

---

96 hrs, valid at:

030000z --- 34.5n 133.9e

Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

vector to 120 hr posit: 045 deg/ 12 kts

---

120 hrs, valid at:

040000z --- 37.9n 138.3e

Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt

wind radii valid over open water only

becoming extratropical

---

remarks:

300300z position near 19.9n 142.1e.

Typhoon (TY) 05w (Usagi) located approximately 315 nm south-

southeast of iwo to has tracked northwestward at 11 knots over

the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 300000z

is 18 feet. Next warnings at 300900z, 301500z, 302100z and

310300z.

//

Nnnn
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Old 07-30-2007, 04:56 AM   #3
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WTPN31 PGTW 300300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/


1. TYPHOON 05W (USAGI) WARNING NR 007

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC


MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

---

WARNING POSITION:

300000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 142.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 142.5E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

301200Z --- 20.8N 140.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

310000Z --- 22.3N 138.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

311200Z --- 24.1N 137.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

010000Z --- 26.2N 135.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

020000Z --- 30.6N 133.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 10 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

030000Z --- 34.5N 133.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

040000Z --- 37.9N 138.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

---

REMARKS:

300300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 142.1E.

TYPHOON (TY) 05W (USAGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z

IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND

310300Z.

//

NNNN
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