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Old 05-13-2007, 12:23 PM   #1
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I have copied this post over from the Indian Ocean Cruising Forums as there may be some over here with some knowledge of the subject as well.

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There is much talk of the potential for a La Nina event in the Pacific, which would be very good for drought-stricken Australia, bringing wetter conditions in the east. I'm wondering, though, what this might mean for the cruising boat crossing the Indian Ocean this year. Are the Indian Ocean trades seen as independent of the Pacific trades, which generally strengthen during a La Nina? We're planning to sail from Darwin to Cocos, Mauritius, and Durban beginning August. My web searches haven't come up with much on this. One friend mentioned the Indian Ocean di-pole phenomenon as another climatic condition to watch, but I haven't found much to explain the practical implications of this for sailing vessels either.

Does anyone have comments or more information for me? Thanks.

Tom Unruh

SV Galatea
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:31 PM   #2
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Hi Tom,

La Nina/el Nino is one of those phenomena that I promise I will learn to comprehend one day. For the meantime while we await a response from people with specific practical knowledge, may I suggest a quick search of the Australian Government's Meteorology site www.bom.gov.au . It has some good general information. Perhaps the South African and Sri Lankan/Indian bureaux may also be a help. There is a British Navy meteorological station on the Chagos archipeligo that may be able to provide some info also.

Theoretical data will be easy to find and is probably of little practical use in itself. I am sure I have read articles on both la Nina and el Nino in Blue Water Sailing and Cruising World magazines. perhaps a search of their internet archives could be of benefit.

Sorry I can provide more assistance, but I am sure it will arrive via this site in the not to distant future.

Cheers.

David

PS. When are you expecting to arrive in Darwin?
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Old 05-13-2007, 01:44 PM   #3
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Info updated every 3 weeks:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Another to keep an eye on:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/

South African Weather Service

http://www.weathersa.co.za/ElNino/ElNinoFacts.jsp
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Old 05-14-2007, 12:17 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lighthouse View Post
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

David's recommendations are spot on - plus the links he provided

Also Lighthouse's link :- South African Weather Service

http://www.weathersa.co.za/ElNino/ElNinoFacts.jsp

Ouch ! here's another :- http://physicsweb.org/articles/world/11/8/8

-------------------

Tom Unruh on SV Galatea in his original post concerned sailing Darwin to Cocos, Mauritius, and Durban beginning August.

He was asking for comments or more information on the practical implications of this for sailing vessels.

Unfortunately, the passage from Darwin to Durban in terms of favorable trade winds applies for the first half and after that

the West to East winds from the Southern Ocean start to impact on the prevailing trades - making longer term predictions

difficult.

In addition here are some others that provide the day to day wind

and storm forecasts for for the Indian Ocean ( These are some of the ones

used every day to provide WX to cruisers by the MMNETSEA) :-

-------------------------------------------------------------------

A regular commentary on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

--------------------------------------

Tropical Storm 01B: Current Data

http://tsr.mssl.ucl.ac.uk/

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FNMOC WXMAP Model: NOGAPS Area: Tropical IndOcn DTG:

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap...usf&tau=012

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Weather Model - Indian Ocean Surface Pressure and Wind

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/disp...gi?a=sindi_slp

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

MeteoSat5 Infrared Sat Image Storm Cells - Indian Ocean

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-tim...s/xxirmet5n.GIF

Univ Wisconsin - Tropical Weather Advisory - Indian Ocean

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/tropic.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Synoptic Chart - Darwin>>> 16 South x 90 East

http://intranet.mssinet.gov.sg/marine/

------------------------------------------------------o-------------------------------------------------------

MORE SAILING INFO :-

Now, here is an excellent account of a yacht's voyage that covered the Southern Indian Ocean - East to West :- http://www.mdschool.com/indian_ocean_complete2.htm
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Old 05-14-2007, 10:03 PM   #5
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"The set of dynamical and statistical model forecasts issued during late March and early April 2007 indicates a wide range of possible sea surface temperature conditions in the central/eastern equatorial Pacific, ranging between slightly warm ENSO-neutral to La Nina conditions developing between now and the middle of 2007. At the time of preparing this, the SST observations in the NINO3.4 region are very near their average value, with an area-averaged weekly anomaly of 0.2 C. Tropical Pacific oceanic conditions, especially in the sub-surface, suggest a significant possibility of La Nina development."

More details HERE
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Old 08-22-2011, 12:55 AM   #6
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This is significally directed to la nina
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