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Old 06-01-2010, 01:07 AM   #1
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Tropical Storm now in Arabian sea - building to become a Cat 1 Cyclone -- Heading for the coastal border between Pakistan and India

TS IO 3 1 June 07.gif
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Old 06-01-2010, 11:45 AM   #2
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Cyclone increasing speed - latest forecast and positions.CYCLONE 3A Arabian Sea.gif
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Old 06-02-2010, 03:22 AM   #3
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CYCLONE give name Phet, has changed direction - more to the west threatening Oman.

WTIO31 PGTW 012100

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 005

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

---

WARNING POSITION:

011800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 61.5E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

020600Z --- 17.6N 60.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

021800Z --- 18.5N 60.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

030600Z --- 19.5N 60.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

031800Z --- 20.7N 60.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS

---

---

REMARKS:

012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 61.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM

SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT

09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED

OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS). THIS IS EVIDENT IN

ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED

BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER

(LLCC). A 011728Z TRMM 37H GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A STRONGLY-ORGANIZED

SYSTEM WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE

IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR

IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS

BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM

IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN

SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP

WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS. AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL

ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN

NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SUPPORTS

THE CURRENT TRACK AND IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF

WBAR. GFS DEPARTS FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE FROM TAU 48-72 AND IS ON

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY

THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY

NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY

INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BASED ON

THE EXCELLENT MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC

03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE

OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS

18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//

NNNN

NOTE :

Pirates operating in adjacent waters may find that 18 ft waves plus are bad news.CYCLONE PHET.jpg
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Old 06-02-2010, 07:42 AM   #4
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Phet now a Super Cyclone - Forecast to be in Karachi Pakistan in by late tomorrow.

This storm is forecast to hit the Port Area of Karachi - It could have catastrophic results on the tens of thousands in the surrounding shanty towns.

KarachiPort.jpg

Phet 5.gif
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Old 06-04-2010, 01:14 AM   #5
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Phet changed direction - now clobbering Oman - still forecast to move towards Pakistan and Iran after Oman :-

PHET 6 IR.jpg
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Old 06-05-2010, 09:20 AM   #6
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Phet now a TS back in open Water:-

Phet 6.gif
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