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Old 01-19-2010, 09:33 AM   #1
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 3,067
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Very usual weather system for this time of the Year :-

WTPN31 PGTW 190900

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 003

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

190600Z --- NEAR 8.2N 109.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 109.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

191800Z --- 9.4N 107.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

200600Z --- 10.6N 105.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

---

REMARKS:

190900Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 109.3E.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTHEAST

OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS AN

EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE

CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST, INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS

CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) DUE TO ITS

LOCATION EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 01W IS ALSO LOCATED IN AN AREA OF UPPER

LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH POOR OUTFLOW. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO

THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STEERING

MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH LOW OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT VALUES AND CONTINUED VWS, TD 01W WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE

NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 24.

NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//

NNNN
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