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Old 02-26-2010, 12:52 AM   #1
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WTPS21 PGTW 251400

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN

180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.8S 163.8W TO 19.6S 166.4W

WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY

ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT

IMAGERY AT 251330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED

NEAR 16.2S 164.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS.


2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S

164.1W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2S 164.6W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA.
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY

AND A 250540Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST

12 HOURS WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND CURVED

CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 250845Z PARTIAL

ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 25-30 KNOT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPROVED

BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT

WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND WEAK (DECREASING

TREND) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A

WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM WITH EXPANDING

OUTFLOW WEST OF THE CENTER WITH CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW

ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING

ENVIRONMENT AND CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS GOOD.


3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED

BY 261400Z.//

NNNN
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