Cyclone Ului makes Landfall

[MMNETSEA]

WTPS31 PGTW 131500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WARNING POSITION:

131200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 163.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

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FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z --- 12.7S 161.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z --- 12.6S 160.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

150000Z --- 12.6S 158.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

151200Z --- 12.6S 157.5E

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

161200Z --- 13.0S 155.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

171200Z --- 13.4S 154.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

181200Z --- 13.9S 154.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

---

REMARKS:

131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 162.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFI-

CATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 105

KNOTS, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 115

KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM

INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SLOWLY DECREA-

SING AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH THE APPROACH OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST STRONG

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ULUI.

ULUI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAK STEERING

ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

131200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO

TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

NNNN

[MMNETSEA]

SUPER CYC ULUI

Dangerous storm!!!

Gusting 180 Knots = 333.36 kilometres per hour = 207.14 MPH = 92 metres per second.

[MMNETSEA]

Super Cyclone ULUI's outer winds forecast to impact Queensland Australia Friday, 19th March.

CLICK HERE FOR .gif image

[MMNETSEA]

Latest Graphic from JTWC :

[MMNETSEA]

The eye of ULUI forecast to come ashore on 21st March about 60nm South of Mackay - Queensland

(About midway between Brisbane and Cairns)

[MMNETSEA]

Ului's eye now forecast to be in Mackay 20th as Cat 1 storm (Cairns should watch this storm - it has potential to turn north )

[MMNETSEA]

ULUI now forecast to land in the Whitsundays :

[MMNETSEA]

ULUI's landfall moved further North



From BOM Queensland Australia

IDQ20008

PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF

METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0659 UTC 18 March 2010

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului was centred within 10 nautical miles of

latitude fifteen decimal four south [15.4S]

longitude one hundred and fifty seven decimal six east [157.6E]

Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots

Maximum winds : 75 knots

Central pressure: 965 hPa

AREA AFFECTED

Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high to very high

seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas.

Forecast positions

At 1800 UTC 18 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 16.4 south 156.9 east

Central pressure 965 hPa.

Winds to 75 knots

At 0600 UTC 19 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.7 south 155.7 east

Central pressure 965 hPa.

Winds to 75 knots

REMARKS

All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular

weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email

to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241 through

Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 18 March 2010.

[MMNETSEA]

Here is Later graphic from JTWC

[MMNETSEA]

Forecast to make landfall tonight Saturday 20th Mar



Small but still a dangerous storm

[seaescape]

Wow this is different. I've been living on my boat in Mackay Marina for 12 months now. I've completed alot of work on her getting her in shape ready to cruise in the Indonesian Rally in July.

Now I find myself sitting here wondering if she'll be here tomorrow. I'm going to have to leave her around 8.00 pm tonight to fend for her self. I've done what I can to keep her safe, all her dressings are below and she's doubled and tripled lined to 5 cleats, I've sunk the dink so it won't fly away. What more can I do? I hope there were no short cuts in building this marina and I hope that every other boat owner has done their best to protect my boat by protecting theirs.

Best guess is that Ului will cross the coast early in the morning between 1 and 4 as a cat 3 ( 5 mtr high tide at about 1.30 am) just 100 klms north of Mackay so I figure we're going to get the strongest winds here. I was really hoping it would past to the south but s*** happens.

Ului is about 200 klms away looking on the Bom radar and outside it's blowing about 28kts gusting to 38. Not much rain yet but heaps is expected. Mackay and surrounding district in quite low, in alot of places only 3 or 4 metres above sea level with new developments minimum of 6 I think. So there should be alot under water tomorrow.

Well I'm going to take some pics because I think it wont be the same tomorrow.

Kevin

[delatbabel]

Good luck. I'll be watching the news forecasts with interest and trepidation.

[Lighthouse]

Good luck everyone!

[MMNETSEA]

[MMNETSEA]

Ului makes landfall

[MMNETSEA]

[QUOTE=MMNETSEA;41594]ULUI now forecast to land in the Whitsundays :

Attachment 1285

21ST MARCH 2019

NEWS from the Whitsundays - Airlie and Shute Harbour

--

Boat marinas

The Volunteer Marine Rescue Service (VMRS) says several boats have been battered at Shute Harbour ar Airlie Beach in the Whitsundays.

VMRS Whitsundays president Terry Lawn says four boats have also been thrown onto rocks at Cannonvale.

"Shute Harbour's really taken a bad hit - I saw maybe half-a-dozen boats either sunk or up on the rocks," he said.

"There's one ... about a 40-footer, almost up in the car park and the charter company down there have actually lost their jetty - their jetty's washed away."

VMRS spokesman Terry Lawn says other marinas were also affected.

"The Cannonvale area took a bit of a hit - not too bad ... but the main marina itself, the Abel Point marina, appears to be intact," he said.

"I don't think there's much damage in there, but Shute Harbour's really taken a bad hit."

Hamilton Island spokeswoman Jill Collins says no-one was hurt and there does not appear to be any damage to boats at the marina.

"We had pretty severe weather conditions on the island, very strong winds, gusts of over 200-kilometres-an-hour and quite a bit of rain," she said.

"But I'm very happy to report this morning that all of our guests and our staff and our residents are all safe."

Ms Collins says there will be no flights into or out of the island today.

"We're looking at having the airport open tomorrow for flights coming in and out as scheduled," she said.

"The only other thing is we're waiting on Fantasea right now to let us know when the ferry services will commence."

[Atica]

Just wondering how everone up that way fared? It appears a number are on the rocks at Airlie, including Anaconda II - any further updates would be appreciated.

[seaescape]

Hi guys, I can't tell you anything more on Airlie but Mackay's marina is intact, though the breakwall has sustained some major damage.

I was very worried that we would take the hit and all looked like we were. We were lucky at the last minute ului turned north and hit Airlie. There's plenty of damage up there. All the power is out and it is expected to be out for acouple of days yet. So there's alot of holiday makers with no food or cash which is needed to buy things as the atms are down with no power.

Tonight the news is reporting that the sewerage system is overflowing and that's now contaminated the water system. It looks that there's about 20 or 30 boats destroyed in and around Airlie. All of these were sitting on moorings.

Well overall I think we were lucky it wasn't a cat 4 or 5

One good thing did come out of this. Indo is still on!

See ya out there,

Kevin