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Old 03-13-2010, 11:48 PM   #1
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WTPS31 PGTW 131500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (ULUI) WARNING NR 005

02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC


MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WARNING POSITION:

131200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 163.0E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

140000Z --- 12.7S 161.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

141200Z --- 12.6S 160.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

150000Z --- 12.6S 158.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

151200Z --- 12.6S 157.5E

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

161200Z --- 13.0S 155.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

171200Z --- 13.4S 154.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

181200Z --- 13.9S 154.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

---

REMARKS:

131500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 162.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM WEST-

NORTHWEST OF VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.
TC 20P HAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFI-

CATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 105

KNOTS, AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN 90 AND 115

KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM

INTENSITY OF 150 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SLOWLY DECREA-

SING AS THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW DIMINISHES WITH THE APPROACH OF A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST STRONG

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF ULUI.

ULUI IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE WEAK STEERING

ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

131200Z IS 24 FEET
. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO

TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (TOMAS) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY

UPDATES.//

NNNN

SUPER_CYCLONE_ULUI.gif
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Old 03-14-2010, 01:33 AM   #2
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SUPER CYC ULUI

Dangerous storm!!!

Gusting 180 Knots = 333.36 kilometres per hour = 207.14 MPH = 92 metres per second.

SUPER_CYCLONE__ULUI_2.jpg
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Old 03-15-2010, 01:00 AM   #3
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Super Cyclone ULUI's outer winds forecast to impact Queensland Australia Friday, 19th March.

CLICK HERE FOR .gif image
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Old 03-15-2010, 09:25 PM   #4
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Latest Graphic from JTWC :

SUPER_CYCLONE_ULUI_3.gif
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Old 03-16-2010, 07:09 AM   #5
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The eye of ULUI forecast to come ashore on 21st March about 60nm South of Mackay - Queensland

(About midway between Brisbane and Cairns)

Super_CYCLONE_ULUI_4.gif
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Old 03-17-2010, 12:02 AM   #6
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Ului's eye now forecast to be in Mackay 20th as Cat 1 storm (Cairns should watch this storm - it has potential to turn north )

Super_CYCLONE_ULUI_8.gif
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Old 03-18-2010, 12:18 AM   #7
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ULUI now forecast to land in the Whitsundays :

Ului_9.gif
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Old 03-18-2010, 12:55 PM   #8
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ULUI's landfall moved further North

ULUI_10.gif

From BOM Queensland Australia

IDQ20008

PAN PAN

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF

METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0659 UTC 18 March 2010

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION

At 0600 UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului was centred within 10 nautical miles of

latitude fifteen decimal four south [15.4S]

longitude one hundred and fifty seven decimal six east [157.6E]

Recent movement : south southwest at 4 knots

Maximum winds : 75 knots

Central pressure: 965 hPa

AREA AFFECTED

Within 150 nautical miles of the centre.

FORECAST

Maximum winds to 75 knots near the centre.

Winds above 64 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre with phenomenal seas.

Winds above 48 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre with high to very high

seas.

Winds above 34 knots within 150 nautical miles of centre with very rough seas.

Forecast positions

At 1800 UTC 18 March: Within 35 nautical miles of 16.4 south 156.9 east

Central pressure 965 hPa.

Winds to 75 knots

At 0600 UTC 19 March: Within 60 nautical miles of 17.7 south 155.7 east

Central pressure 965 hPa.

Winds to 75 knots

REMARKS

All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular

weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either email

to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 1241 through

Land Earth Station Perth 212.

Next warning will be issued by 1300 UTC 18 March 2010.
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Old 03-19-2010, 12:18 AM   #9
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ULUI_AUS_.gif

Here is Later graphic from JTWC

ULUI_CL_2.gif
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Old 03-20-2010, 01:22 AM   #10
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Forecast to make landfall tonight Saturday 20th Mar

ULUI__20_sat_am.gif

Small but still a dangerous storm

ULUI_Image_20_Mar.jpg
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Old 03-20-2010, 08:42 AM   #11
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Wow this is different. I've been living on my boat in Mackay Marina for 12 months now. I've completed alot of work on her getting her in shape ready to cruise in the Indonesian Rally in July.

Now I find myself sitting here wondering if she'll be here tomorrow. I'm going to have to leave her around 8.00 pm tonight to fend for her self. I've done what I can to keep her safe, all her dressings are below and she's doubled and tripled lined to 5 cleats, I've sunk the dink so it won't fly away. What more can I do? I hope there were no short cuts in building this marina and I hope that every other boat owner has done their best to protect my boat by protecting theirs.

Best guess is that Ului will cross the coast early in the morning between 1 and 4 as a cat 3 ( 5 mtr high tide at about 1.30 am) just 100 klms north of Mackay so I figure we're going to get the strongest winds here. I was really hoping it would past to the south but s*** happens.

Ului is about 200 klms away looking on the Bom radar and outside it's blowing about 28kts gusting to 38. Not much rain yet but heaps is expected. Mackay and surrounding district in quite low, in alot of places only 3 or 4 metres above sea level with new developments minimum of 6 I think. So there should be alot under water tomorrow.

Well I'm going to take some pics because I think it wont be the same tomorrow.

Kevin
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Old 03-20-2010, 09:11 AM   #12
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Good luck. I'll be watching the news forecasts with interest and trepidation.
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Old 03-20-2010, 10:00 AM   #13
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Good luck everyone!
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Old 03-20-2010, 10:12 AM   #14
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