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03-02-2009, 05:59 PM
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#1
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
Vessel Name: T
Posts: 1,215
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Man...it is now looking very much like the 1930 drop to the great depression!
I really hate to say it, but it looks like we are blowing past a recession and straight into another great depression.
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03-02-2009, 06:35 PM
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#2
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
Posts: 3,236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
Man...it is now looking very much like the 1930 drop to the great depression!
I really hate to say it, but it looks like we are blowing past a recession and straight into another great depression.
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Well, yes, we're getting into something more extreme than anything seen post-WWII, however, realize the great depression lasted all through the 1930's and 1940's. Even WWII didn't pull us out of that depression. It was the early 1950's before the stock markets and employment recovered back to pre-depression levels.
This is, indeed, the first time that banks have teetered on the brink of failure since the great depression--but for different reasons.
I was a child during the 1970's. I remember things being very, very tough at that time for us and for other families we knew. When my husband and I married in 1982, the economy was doing pretty poorly, too. I remember things starting to pick up around 1984 even though 1982 was the "low" and the current economic expansion and stock market bull run started in '82.
The USA has been beyond full employment since something like 1999. Its just now in the last year down to reasonable employment numbers. We're nowhere close to the great depression numbers in terms of unemployment. What was it--25%? hugely different than what we have now--though that can change, yes.
Good time to cut back on expenses and go cruising  Gee, that's what you're gonna do, Ken! smart fella that you are.
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03-02-2009, 06:53 PM
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#3
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
Vessel Name: T
Posts: 1,215
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Lori is an HR Director and says a wave like never before is building here in California...unemployment numbers are going to explode this quarter and next.
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03-02-2009, 08:02 PM
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#4
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
Posts: 3,236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
Lori is an HR Director and says a wave like never before is building here in California...unemployment numbers are going to explode this quarter and next.
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So, we'll get back to the numbers we had in the 1970's and early 1980's, I suppose and worse.
As I recall, California never saw the high unemployment that other parts of the country did in the 1970's and early 80's. But, California is really beginning to see dark days this go-round.
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03-02-2009, 08:12 PM
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#5
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
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Posts: 1,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redbopeep
So, we'll get back to the numbers we had in the 1970's and early 1980's, I suppose and worse.
As I recall, California never saw the high unemployment that other parts of the country did in the 1970's and early 80's. But, California is really beginning to see dark days this go-round.
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I believe the 70s was an inflationary cycle with Carter in command...a completely different set of circumstances. I am sure we will eventually get to inflation, but not till a new world banking order is in place and the damages of astonomical bail-outs begins to be realized.
I'm not an economist...so I could be totally wrong about everything. My real concern is how to cover and protect the Kitty!
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03-02-2009, 08:23 PM
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#6
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
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Posts: 1,215
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Dow at 6785...if someone would have told me it would hit this 6 months ago, I would have told them that they were nuts!
Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJI: ^DJI)
Index Value: 6,785.52
Trade Time: 3:23PM ET
Change: 277.41 (3.93%)
Prev Close: 6,855.64
Open:
I remember reading predictions of DOW down 50+%, but I didn't think it would really happen.
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03-02-2009, 08:27 PM
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#7
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Retired Mod
Join Date: Mar 2007
Home Port: Durban
Posts: 2,984
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I'm no expert (apologies to Kirk) but:
Hold overheads down and hang on to a well paid job for as long as possible.
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03-02-2009, 09:03 PM
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#8
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
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Hold overheads down and hang on to a well paid job for as long as possible.
Yep...exactly what I've been think'n.
How low can we go?????
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/artic...%5Egspc,%5Eixic
Based on Professor Shiller's latest numbers, we're at about a 12X P/E. (Prof. Shiller's last update was at 805 on the S&P 500, which produced a 14X P/E. Plugging in today's 700 on the same earnings number, we get about a 12X P/E). The 12X PE compares favorably to the long-term arithmetic average of 16X, but it's still way above the historical troughs of 5X-8X.
So where would the S&P bottom if we hit the previous trough PE lows? It depends how we get there.
If the stock market stops falling and earnings eventually begin to grow again, we would be close to the bottom: The market could simply move sideways for 5-10 years while earnings growth gradually reduced the PE to the 5X-8X range. This is what happened in the 1970s.
Alternatively, the market could just keep dropping, as it did in the early 1930s.
Using Professor Shiller's latest earnings data, here's where the numbers would fall out if the market just kept dropping and 10-year average earnings didn't grow from today's level:
P/E S&P 500 Level
10X 575
8X 460 (highest previous trough low)
7X 400 (average previous trough low)
6X 350
5X 300 (lowest previous trough low)
In short, if the S&P fell straight to the high-end of its previous trough range (8X PE, or 460), it would fall another 35% from today's level (700)
If the S&P fell straight to the low-end of its previous trough range (5X PE, or 300), it would fall another 55+% from today's level.
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03-02-2009, 09:20 PM
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#9
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Admiral
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,619
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Just spent the day talking with an Icelandic economist. PHd and all, but from Iceland and the University of Reykjavik which, considering Iceland's recent performance, may not be the best recommendation.
Nonetheless, the good professor believes we might well be in an economic down-swing of the same caliber as that of the Great Depression.
My take on this is that, as long as you have a well paid job a downturn with resultant deflation is to your advantage but when the little brown envelope comes with the paper saying that you are no longer requires to turn up for work then it is time to heave the anchor and sever the last connection with land. This maybe the opportunity and driving force many of us have been waiting for. As they say, "It is an ill wind that blows nobody any good."
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03-02-2009, 09:50 PM
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#10
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
Vessel Name: T
Posts: 1,215
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I'm not as much concerned about the bottom as I am about the affect of dumping trillions of borrowed dollars into the economy.
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03-02-2009, 10:05 PM
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#11
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Retired Mod
Join Date: Mar 2007
Home Port: Durban
Posts: 2,984
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When the economy is on a downturn, most countries around the world appear to lower interest rates. We are different here in SA. Our interest rates go UP - to slow down credit. If you own everything and don't owe, this is great for credit balances.
Our bank prime interest rate is somewhere around 14% at the moment. This has a hell of an effect on real estate, car, furniture, etc., sales but it does stop people buying things with the bank's money. It does slow down job creation but the banks are stable.
What does this mean to you and me? I don't know.
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03-02-2009, 11:31 PM
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#12
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
Posts: 3,236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
I believe the 70s was an inflationary cycle with Carter in command...a completely different set of circumstances. I am sure we will eventually get to inflation, but not till a new world banking order is in place and the damages of astonomical bail-outs begins to be realized.
I'm not an economist...so I could be totally wrong about everything. My real concern is how to cover and protect the Kitty!
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Carter was elected in '76. I think the problems started in ...the 70-72 timeframe...hummm...another crazy republican president who thought he was god.and didn't have to abide by the law..Yes, Nixon. The big oil crisis of the 70's started in 72 and seemed dismal by 74 it seems. They had a lot of similar things going on to what we have now--an unpopular and expensive war, high oil prices and an unstable middle east, problems in heavy industry as jobs were getting exported...
Carter inherited problems similar to the problems that it seems Obama inherited...Carter didn't manage to pull us out of them--it took Reagan and massive military build-up, a bit of protectionism, and some good luck in the international economic scene post '82 for things to sort themselves out.
We had Stagflation at the end of the Carter administration and it carried into the Reagan years--that's what happens when you keep interest rates up but everyone is losing their jobs...
you'all probably know this:
The S&P 500, the Dow, etc, all reflect the valuations of the companies in the particular index. While Price to earnings (looking backwards and historical returns and forward "a bit" but without worry...) looks ok in stable times, with high growth companies (like tech) or declining revenue situations (like GM and the oil companies right now...) the fundamental analysis that is performed to price a company and therefore their stock is a forward looking model of discounted cash flows. When you do that for a tech company that is "booming" you get those 100X price to earnings ratios because of the high growth potential of the company and you're price is all rosy forward looking but the earnings are historical. When you do take a look forward for DOW constituents or S&P constituents in a down-trending economy...you get something that looks like 3, 5, 6 x prior year earnings because the forward look is pretty dismal.
In terms of cruising, this economy is sucking the life right out of that kitty, for sure. Preservation of capital and hedging is about the best one can do. We can keep our fingers crossed for a bounce in the markets---but I'll have to hope that my money is in the market when the bounce starts
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03-03-2009, 03:56 PM
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#13
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
Vessel Name: T
Posts: 1,215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redbopeep
In terms of cruising, this economy is sucking the life right out of that kitty, for sure. Preservation of capital and hedging is about the best one can do. We can keep our fingers crossed for a bounce in the markets---but I'll have to hope that my money is in the market when the bounce starts 
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Yes, you are correct...it probably was stagflation. I was too young to fully appreciate the economic times, but I do remember my parents complaining about 18-20% interest rates on business loans.
Like I said, economics and investing aren't my strong suit for sure. I wish I knew much much more. I do believe we can learn a lot from history and the one sure thing we can learn from history is that capitulation is not an investment strategy...falls are always followed by a rebound. Besides, if this did not hold true, no amount of money you pulled from the market would ever be enough.
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03-10-2009, 10:00 PM
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#14
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
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BOING...was that a bounce today or what? +379pts...Now we need another 10 just like it
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03-11-2009, 01:35 AM
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#15
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
BOING...was that a bounce today or what? +379pts...Now we need another 10 just like it 
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Yea...but this bounce was entirely about the hope that the banks will be able to keep their dirt under the rug a little longer with a reprieve from mark-to-market (M2M).
All about "lets pretend...and we can prop up our stock prices"
Not a good reason for a bounce. Even so, if on Thursday the Congress determines that letting them ignore M2M (or some variation), the market--not just banking stocks--will likely go wild for a bit. Then, let's see...the next bad news that comes along...busted and back to the downward spiral for a bit longer.
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03-11-2009, 03:21 AM
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#16
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Ensign
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 14
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All I can say is YaHoo - big day for me. It would be nice if we could just look a the positive for one week. Keep from predicting the sky falling.
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03-11-2009, 08:00 PM
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#17
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigamarole
Keep from predicting the sky falling.
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It already fell. We're trying to pick up the pieces right now. That would be the "Obama Stimulus Plan..."
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03-11-2009, 08:17 PM
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#18
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Ensign
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by redbopeep
It already fell. We're trying to pick up the pieces right now. That would be the "Obama Stimulus Plan..."
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Can I ask why you think the Obama Stimulus Plan made the sky fall. It hasn't even started yet.
For me, the clouds grew dark in '06, rained like hell in '07, and the hurricane hit in '08. Funny that since Obama got in office, the wind is dying and it's just a drizzle out now. The big task ahead is mopping up the mess from Hurricane George.
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03-11-2009, 08:32 PM
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#19
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Moderator
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigamarole
Can I ask why you think the Obama Stimulus Plan made the sky fall. It hasn't even started yet.
For me, the clouds grew dark in '06, rained like hell in '07, and the hurricane hit in '08. Funny that since Obama got in office, the wind is dying and it's just a drizzle out now. The big task ahead is mopping up the mess from Hurricane George.
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My meaning was that the Obama Stimulus Plan IS picking up the pieces. You seem to misunderstand a lot of the things I write. Sorry about that.
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03-11-2009, 08:41 PM
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#20
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Ensign
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 14
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Sorry. I didn't realize I'd questioned you before. I'll be more carefull in the future when I'm reading posts.
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