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10-22-2008, 04:20 PM
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#61
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
Posts: 3,236
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Two good articles about US real estate underlying the current economic crisis:
This Wall Street Journal article looks at a particularly hard-hit community in California and the actions of the home owners in that community.
This Bloomberg interview of Charles Morris has a good discussion of why increasing liquidity isn't really going to help the crisis as the issue is overpriced houses (e.g. solvency issue)...
excerpt:
"Solvency, Not Liquidity
Though Paulson's plan may help ease cash hoarding at banks, it perpetuates the misconception that ``we have a liquidity problem, not a solvency problem,'' Morris says.
To explain the difference, Morris cites two precedents: The rise of U.S. grain futures in the 19th century and the tulip bulb mania that gripped the Netherlands in the 17th century.
``In the 19th century, we had these huge wheat fields in the Midwest,'' he says. ``But it was very risky to send grain to the East, let alone abroad.''
That was a liquidity problem, and the development of grain futures markets solved it by allowing future deliveries to be sold for cash. As this ``fire hose of investment'' flooded the grain belt, ``we became the Saudi Arabia of food,'' Morris says.
Tulip Bulb Futures
During tulip mania, by contrast, traders leveraged up their bulb holdings, taking ever more risk until the bubble burst and prices collapsed. No amount of lending could have restored them, Morris says; the episode was ``a parable of insolvency.''
``It wasn't a liquidity problem,'' he says. ``You don't solve that by lending more against tulip bulbs.''
U.S. houses, in short, became tulip bulbs. Banks that forked over cash for a claim on a home's unrealized value were in essence ``selling tulip bulb futures.'' The more cash they extended, the more U.S. consumers spent.
``Between 2000 and 2007, total U.S. gross domestic product was $92.5 trillion in current dollars,'' Morris says. ``Our gross domestic purchases were $97 trillion, a $4.5 trillion overrun.''
Where did the $4.5 trillion come from? Consumer debt --almost all of it secured by houses, Morris says.
``Between 2000 and 2007, homeowners borrowed $4.2 trillion on their homes that they didn't invest in their housing or use to pay down their mortgages,'' he says. "
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10-23-2008, 03:25 PM
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#62
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Admiral
Join Date: Feb 2006
Home Port: Who cares really...
Vessel Name: T
Posts: 1,215
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I simply can't watch anymore....need to focus on saving pennies for casting off.
All in all it seems like a the best possible time to go cruising.
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10-23-2008, 03:53 PM
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#63
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Commander
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 195
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
I simply can't watch anymore....need to focus on saving pennies for casting off.
All in all it seems like a the best possible time to go cruising.
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Agreed, if I worried everyday about this I would go the same way the market is going "Into cardiac arrest" Will check each month and lets see where oil is in September next year. My guess is somewhere north of $100 per barrel.
Just head off into the deep blue yonder seems like a plan to me too, just cant do it yet, so I have to suffer.
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10-23-2008, 05:40 PM
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#64
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Moderator
Join Date: Jun 2007
Home Port: Washington DC
Vessel Name: SV Mahdee
Posts: 3,236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trim50
I simply can't watch anymore....need to focus on saving pennies for casting off.
All in all it seems like a the best possible time to go cruising.
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You're right that its the best possible time to go cruising
In regards to "watching"--no, not a good idea. However, it is somewhat fascinating to see events occur that I suspected were likely to happen given the crazy borrowing activities of the last several years. When we sold our house in summer '06 and bought our boat, all our friends thought we were nuts "you'll never get back into a house, prices keep going up...etc" and we kept thinking--take the money and run, run, (sail!) far, far away from the craziness!
Best of luck to everyone in these tough times.
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11-01-2008, 01:06 PM
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#65
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Admiral
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,619
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Investment Tips!
With all the turmoil in the market today this might be some good advice. For all of you with any money left, be aware of the next expected mergers so that you can get in on the ground floor and make some BIG bucks.
Watch for these consolidations in later this year:
1.) Hale Business Systems, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Fuller Brush, and W R. Grace Co. Will merge and become:
Hale, Mary, Fuller, Grace.
2.) Polygram Records, Warner Bros., and Zesta Crackers join forces and become:
Poly, Warner Cracker.
3.) 3M will merge with Goodyear and become:
MMMGood.
4. Zippo Manufacturing, Audi Motors, Dofasco, and
Dakota Mining will merge and become:
ZipAudiDoDa.
5. FedEx is expected to join its competitor, UPS, and become:
FedUP.
6. Fairchild Electronic s and Honeywell Computers will become:
Fairwell Honeychild.
7. Grey Poupon and Docker Pants are expected to become:
PouponPants.
8. Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become:
Knott NOW!
And finally...
9. Victoria 's Secret and Smith &Wesson will merge under the new name:
TittyTittyBangBang
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10-02-2011, 10:08 PM
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#66
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Ensign
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1
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My business is going to zero. I am worried. The online currency trading market is a relatively new venture in the financial world with over three trillion dollars worth of transactions taking place everyday in the currency market. So now my next project is online currency trading.
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10-03-2011, 01:53 PM
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#67
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Commander
Join Date: Apr 2008
Home Port: Edinburgh
Posts: 189
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Don't expect the Euro to be around much longer. The view among many over here is not if Greece will default but when. That and a little known fact that the UK is as deeper in debt percentile wise then Greece with as little Industry and you can see a very wild ride coming along the way.
Just when business is picking up and we have a one week old baby boy to help into this world.
Michael
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What you see in the Universe, sees you.
MM6WMU
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