CYCLONE give name Phet, has changed direction - more to the west threatening Oman.
WTIO31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
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WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 61.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 17.6N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.5N 60.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.5N 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.7N 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
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REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 17.2N 61.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 35 TO 65 KNOTS). THIS IS EVIDENT IN
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 011728Z TRMM 37H GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A STRONGLY-ORGANIZED
SYSTEM WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THIS IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ARABIAN
SEA. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SEEB AND ABU DHABI INDICATE DEEP
WESTERLY FLOW AT 40-50 KNOTS. AS TC 03A GAINS LATITUDE, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AND WILL TURN NORTHWARD THEN
NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, SUPPORTS
THE CURRENT TRACK AND IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WBAR. GFS DEPARTS FROM THE OTHER GUIDANCE FROM TAU 48-72 AND IS ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK CLOSER TO OMAN BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING UP TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. BASED ON
THE EXCELLENT MICROWAVE SIGNATURE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC
03A IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS
18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z, 020900Z, 021500Z AND 022100Z.//
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NOTE :
Pirates operating in adjacent waters may find that 18 ft waves plus are bad news.
Linear Mode
