subj/tropical cyclone warning//
rmks/
1. Typhoon 05w (Usagi) warning nr 007
01 active tropical cyclone in northwestpac
Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
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warning position:
300000z --- near 19.6n 142.5e
movement past six hours - 310 degrees at 11 kts
position accurate to within 040 nm
position based on center located by satellite
present wind distribution:
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
055 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
050 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
120 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
080 nm northwest quadrant
repeat posit: 19.6n 142.5e
---
forecasts:
12 hrs, valid at:
301200z --- 20.8n 140.8e
Max sustained winds - 075 kt, gusts 090 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 025 nm northeast quadrant
020 nm southeast quadrant
020 nm southwest quadrant
020 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
040 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
120 nm southeast quadrant
070 nm southwest quadrant
080 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 24 hr posit: 310 deg/ 12 kts
---
24 hrs, valid at:
310000z --- 22.3n 138.8e
Max sustained winds - 090 kt, gusts 110 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 030 nm northeast quadrant
025 nm southeast quadrant
025 nm southwest quadrant
025 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
090 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 36 hr posit: 320 deg/ 12 kts
---
36 hrs, valid at:
311200z --- 24.1n 137.1e
Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 060 nm northeast quadrant
060 nm southeast quadrant
045 nm southwest quadrant
055 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 140 nm northeast quadrant
130 nm southeast quadrant
080 nm southwest quadrant
090 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 48 hr posit: 330 deg/ 12 kts
---
extended outlook:
48 hrs, valid at:
010000z --- 26.2n 135.8e
Max sustained winds - 115 kt, gusts 140 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 035 nm northeast quadrant
030 nm southeast quadrant
030 nm southwest quadrant
030 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
065 nm southeast quadrant
050 nm southwest quadrant
060 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
140 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 72 hr posit: 335 deg/ 12 kts
---
72 hrs, valid at:
020000z --- 30.6n 133.6e
Max sustained winds - 125 kt, gusts 150 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
radius of 064 kt winds - 045 nm northeast quadrant
040 nm southeast quadrant
035 nm southwest quadrant
040 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 050 kt winds - 070 nm northeast quadrant
070 nm southeast quadrant
055 nm southwest quadrant
065 nm northwest quadrant
radius of 034 kt winds - 150 nm northeast quadrant
140 nm southeast quadrant
090 nm southwest quadrant
100 nm northwest quadrant
vector to 96 hr posit: 005 deg/ 10 kts
---
long range outlook:
note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 350 nm on day 5... and for intensity
near 20 kt each day.
---
96 hrs, valid at:
030000z --- 34.5n 133.9e
Max sustained winds - 105 kt, gusts 130 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
vector to 120 hr posit: 045 deg/ 12 kts
---
120 hrs, valid at:
040000z --- 37.9n 138.3e
Max sustained winds - 065 kt, gusts 080 kt
wind radii valid over open water only
becoming extratropical
---
remarks:
300300z position near 19.9n 142.1e.
Typhoon (TY) 05w (Usagi) located approximately 315 nm south-
southeast of iwo to has tracked northwestward at 11 knots over
the past six hours. Maximum significant wave height at 300000z
is 18 feet. Next warnings at 300900z, 301500z, 302100z and
310300z.
//
Nnnn
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