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Old 02-25-2010, 09:06 AM   #1
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I am wondering about what kind of summer will we have. I know it is hard to tell so long in advance, but I hope I could gain some insight on meterology by discussing it.

There is the "Medard monsoon". There is a folclore wisdom which says if in Medard day (june 8.) it is raining, it will rain for 40 days. I know this is based on facts: there is a monsoon-like phenomenon which is not equally strong in each years, and if kicks in, it will be apparent on Medard day.

I did some looking up, and I have found that there is/was a "mini-monsoon" in the Med.

I have also found that there is a connection between the Indian monsoon and mediterranean weather, however I am not sure what it is telling. There is an anticorrelation between Indian monsoon index and sea-level pressure in the med, and an even greater anticorrelation between monsoon index and the difference of pressure between the two ends of Med. What I gather from it that when the monsoon in India is strong, the weather in the med is bad.

Is it so?

There is also a research paper about the connection of El Nino and the Indian Monsoon. What I gather about it is that El Nino causes the Indian monsoon to cease and desist, but not always: when the warmest El Nino events are in the central Pacific, it supresses monsoon more than when they are in eastern Pacific.

So it would seem that when it is hot in Equador in Christmas, there will be good weather here next summer. It is a fascinating thought, even though I know this should be treated only as a hint. If I figured it out right, anyway.

Now it is reported that El Nino is well, and he will stop the monsoon. So Indians might will have some food shortage, while the summer might will be shiny here (and the process of turning Carpathian Basin into a desert continues).

Can anyone with more expertise in meteorology comment on it?

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Old 02-26-2010, 09:48 AM   #2
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Your Medard Day has the same legend as St Swithin's Day in England, Magwas. St Swithin's Day this year is July 15th so if it rains then we will get 40 days of rain.. My knowledge of Meteorology is pretty basic and I rarely bother to look more than about 3 days ahead weatherwise.

If this winter and early months of 2010 are anything to judge by, the weather is unusual for this part of the world (Southern Portugal) Rain,rain and more rain!! The locals say this is the wettest winter in memory! The weather depressions coming in off the Atlantic, round Cape St Vincent seem never ending, someone told me it has to do with the "Jet Stream" which seems to have established itself in the same position for weeks and brings the rain and gales in from West to East across the Atlantic.

If you know any magic spells for a sunny summer with good sailing winds, I think it's time you started work on them..

Edit poor spelling..

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Old 02-26-2010, 05:39 PM   #3
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Originally Posted by saxon View Post
St Swithin's Day in England, Magwas. St Swithin's Day this year is July 15th so if it rains then we will get 40 days of rain..
I never thought that English are so optimistic. This St. Swithin's day implies that there is a possibility of a 40 day period in England when it isn't raining

This is an interesting piece of information. At first sight one would conclude that it takes the Indian monsoon 5 weeks to travel from Hungary to England. However England is in the oceanic climate belt, and "Medard monsoon" is linked with Mediterranean weather (Hungary is in the border of three weather systems).

I guess the rainy weather in Portugal is caused by increased cyclone activity, which is due to El Nino strengthening the polar jet stream and pulling it south. But this is for winter, the north-east propagation of El Nino effects, in the oceanic climate belt. However the western propagation seems to travel suthern to that, and in a way the two seems to meet in the med, but with opposite results and nearly half a year delay. Or maybe it can be told that the energy imbalance is dissipating through increased cyclone activity in the winter, thus when we reach summer in the northern hemisphere there are less energy left to drive bad weather. Well, maybe it is just casting spells, but I do believe it

I would be very interested in the opinion of someone who really knows something about weather and climate. (unlike me)
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