I am wondering about what kind of summer will we have. I know it is hard to tell so long in advance, but I hope I could gain some insight on meterology by discussing it.
There is the "Medard monsoon". There is a folclore wisdom which says if in Medard day (june 8.) it is raining, it will rain for 40 days. I know this is based on facts: there is a monsoon-like phenomenon which is not equally strong in each years, and if kicks in, it will be apparent on Medard day.
I did some looking up, and I have found that there is/was a "mini-monsoon"
in the Med.
I have also found that there is a connection between the Indian monsoon and mediterranean weather
, however I am not sure what it is telling. There is an anticorrelation between Indian monsoon index and sea-level pressure in the med, and an even greater anticorrelation between monsoon index and the difference of pressure between the two ends of Med. What I gather from it that when the monsoon in India is strong, the weather in the med is bad.
Is it so?
There is also a research paper about the connection of El Nino and the Indian Monsoon
. What I gather about it is that El Nino causes the Indian monsoon to cease and desist, but not always: when the warmest El Nino events are in the central Pacific, it supresses monsoon more than when they are in eastern Pacific.
So it would seem that when it is hot in Equador in Christmas, there will be good weather here next summer. It is a fascinating thought, even though I know this should be treated only as a hint. If I figured it out right, anyway.
Now it is reported that El Nino is well, and he will stop the monsoon
. So Indians might will have some food shortage, while the summer might will be shiny here (and the process of turning Carpathian Basin into a desert continues).
Can anyone with more expertise in meteorology comment on it?